Innovation & Future Visioning
Where am I in 2030?
What will I do
Taiwan
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I will live in Taipei city, and rent an apartment near Daan park instead of buying one. Sometimes live in Taichung city because I can work at home.
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I will work in a relatively small studio around 10-20 people in Taipei city with my colleague. However we will have good relationships with the other small team, and we collaborate to develop the big project
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The project in our studio around the world, and sometimes we have to work in different countries and use the internet to connect. But we still have our headquarter in Taipei city.
What will happen around me
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60% of houses in Taiwan exist over 50 years Because of the weather condition and natural disasters, it is not safe to live in such old houses. Large parts of the city will face regeneration
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People use the same card or mobile phone to do the daily shopping and take public transportation
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Less and less shop own real space to show their product, people use VR device to check the product online.
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Commercial area shrinks because of the webshop, more and more restaurant emerge.
Social
over 50y
Transportation
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People ride electric scooter or bike on the road since construction of cycle lane complete and the law of restricting the use of traditional motorcycle pass in 2030
Demography
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Aging problem become serious in 2030.Around 18% of population in Taiwan over 65 years old.To deal with the shortage of caretaker, more technology device will implement in the nursing home or people’s own house.
Political
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The relationship between Taiwan and China may have something change after 2020, Taiwan will finally solve the dilemma, and not be suppressed in international space.
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The political situation in Taiwan will improve because people who are involved in significant student movements in the past five years become the 30s-40s years old in 2030.The new generation will emerge in the election
Global Trend 2030
Social
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Growing Inequality
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Growing Middle class
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Urbanization
Increasing population and the rising economic power from Asia is the main reason cause these social trends
More job opportunities and well-planned infrastructure are also the key factors to attract people
With technology development, automation will be implemented in every area because of its preciseness and efficiency.
Data is a way to help the computer to calculate more accurately. By collecting personal data helps them customize your need
Political
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Rise of People power
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Organization facilitating and spread social protest through virtual reality
Nowadays internet and social media become a new tool for politicians, it has wider influence than the traditional tool.
Organizations or individuals can also use it to gain power, their activity won’t just limit to their country but also the world.
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Technological
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Circulation economy
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Word economy shift to Asia
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Knowledge-based industry
Less and less resources are the reason people started the circulation economy.Trying to create a business without wasting material
Lots of Asia countries still in development, their economic still have room to improve and also the amount of Asia population is a great market to invest
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Automation become mainstream
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Big data and connected world
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Revolution in industrial production and bio scientific
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A wide spectrum instrument of war
Economical
Environmental
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Food and water supply will be about managing
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World competition about energy resource
Rising population and one earth that human have used for million years.It is obviously the resources are running out .So the one have more resources can survive longer
Driving Force Behind Trend
Eight Driving Forces
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Aging Society
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Increasing Population
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Scarcity of Resource
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Technology Development
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Social Media
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Internet Network
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Climate Change
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Globalization
Following the trend I list above, I conclude eight driving forces behind. The interesting thing is these driving forces still have connections with each other ex: Social Media and Technology Development, but this is also the reference for me to measure the impact of each factor. Scarcity of Resource and Technology Development are the top two driving forces with high impact for me.
Impact Diagram
Download PDF
Scenario
Vinkhuizen in 30 years
The scenario is happening in 2030 and what will Vinkhuizen look like then.
Driving forces on axis
We put two group-chosen driving forces on the XY axis, the axis produces 4 conditions as the backgrounds of our scenarios.
Climate Change and Economy Growth are our driving forces, and my scenario was built up in the Plus-Plus quadrant, which means High Economy Growth with High impact of Climate Change.
Economy
Severe
Mild
Rise
Climate
Change
Decline
My Scenario
Economy Growth
More POPULATION
More PROSPERITY
More BUDGET
More RESEARCH INVESTMENT
SEA LEVEL RISE
EXTREME WEATHER
Climate Change
INSUFFICIENT FOOD
LIVESTOCK DIE
PEOPLE Move
INEQUALITY Rise
ENERGY PROBLEM
INNOVATION
PRECAUTION
FIGHT OR ADAPT
